Bali’s property market in 2024 didn’t just grow, it put on a costume, grabbed a megaphone, and stormed the stage like it had something to prove. Flashy. Noisy. But not entirely sure of the script... More than 12,000 properties are now listed for sale across the island. That’s not a typo. That’s up nearly 45% from last year, when the number hovered just below 9,000. On paper, it’s a boom. In reality? It’s a masterclass in quantity over quality, leasehold over freehold, and small units over substance. Yes, Bali’s development growth is undeniable—you can see it in every truck, construction crew, and new listing that pops up daily, but before we pop the champagne or decry the market's demise, let’s talk about what’s actually behind this meteoric rise and what the numbers actually show.

A Market Built on (Leased) Sand

Let’s start with the headline stat: 79% of the market is leasehold. That’s not just a majority, it's a monopoly…. with a lease period. A growing parade of off-plan developments and foreign-led projects are pumping the numbers, but most of these are glorified rentals dressed up as investments.

And while the headline figure of 12,000 sounds impressive (or daunting), we need to ask: what kind of properties are we actually talking about? And a good follow up might be, what is a leasehold actually worth, but that’s a question for another day.

The Rise of the Shoebox Villa

If 2023 was the year of the three-bedroom family pad, 2024 is the year of the one-bed wonder. One- and two-bedroom properties are making more noise than a YouTube developer on their third property podcast of the week. Together, they’ve jumped a relative 29% while anything north of three bedrooms is slowly fading into the background, down an average of 8%.

Nowhere is this clearer than in South Badung - Uluwatu, Bingin, and friends -where nearly half the market consists of one- and two-bedders. That’s a 53% jump in market share. It’s not subtle. It’s a full-blown strategy shift, aimed squarely at short-term rentals and the young buyers. Meanwhile, more established markets like Central and North Badung still prefer some legroom. Over 65% of properties in Canggu, Berawa, Seminyak, and Kerobokan come with three bedrooms or more. Translation: these areas are still trying to woo families, not just Instagram likes and tourists.

South Badung: From Surf Spot to Development Juggernaut

For years, North Badung was Bali’s golden goose. In 2023, it controlled over 40% of all property listings. In 2024, that number slipped to just above 35%. Why? Because South Badung stole the spotlight and the market share.

South Badung (think Uluwatu, Bingin, Padang Padang) has exploded with a 56% increase in share, now commanding 23% of Bali’s total supply. That’s over 2,000 properties, most of them new, most of them small, and most of them off-plan. And it's not just a flash in the pan. Uluwatu and Bingin have both posted growth of over 150%. It's a tidal shift. Pre-2022, this region was mostly a playground for surfers and honeymooners, sprinkled with luxe resorts from Nusa Dua to Uluwatu. But then land prices in Canggu went full Manhattan, and suddenly Bukit became the budget-friendly alternative. Developers swarmed in, armed with AutoCAD files and drone footage. The result? A southern frontier that’s gone from sleepy to saturated in under two years.

Emerging Contenders: Mengwi and Tabanan Enter the Chat

While South Badung takes the spotlight, other players are quietly warming up backstage. Mengwi, home to Pererenan, Seseh, and their Insta-famous rice fields, is becoming the middle ground for investors who want proximity to Canggu without the full circus. There’s a balance here. Mengwi’s market is roughly a 60/40 split between small and large assets, suggesting a more versatile development approach. Gianyar, the quiet achiever of the North, is quietly going about it’s business, achieving a well balanced market offering with diversity across all asset typologies. 

Then there’s Tabanan. Once a sleepy agricultural expanse, it’s now flirting with suburban respectability. Places like Nyanyi and Kedungu are seeing growth rates around 75%, with a heavy lean toward family-sized homes, over 70% of listings are three-bedroom and above. It’s early days, but the scent of a future second wave is undeniable.

Off-Plan Mania: When Speculation Dons a Hard Hat

But let’s talk about the elephant in the listing: off-plan developments. In 2023, they made up 18% of all listings. 2024? 30%. That’s more than 3,000 properties that, as of today, are mostly concrete dreams and artist impressions. Don’t get me wrong, off-plan is normal in a growing market, and these numbers still sit within norms. But this isn’t normal growth, at this rate it’s a sprint.

But when you strip out the speculative hype, things look a lot less dramatic. If we consider only completed or existing stock, Bali’s market has grown a much healthier 25% year-on-year—not the eye-popping 45% headline figure. South Badung, our media darling of the moment, is especially bloated with off-plan stock. Over 65% of its small-unit inventory hasn’t actually been built yet accounting for 40% of the entire islands off plan properties. In other words: the surge is real, but so is the speculation. With a clearance rate hovering around 30%, odds are high that many of these glossy off-plan palaces won’t just miss the spotlight—they’ll never even make it past the blueprint stage.

The Apartment Equation

By far and away, the leading driver of Bali's off-plan explosion is the humble one-bedroom property. It’s easy to picture this wave as a tsunami of tiny villas—but that’s only part of the story. Enter the apartment.

For a market synonymous with open-air living and breezy outdoor spaces, the rise of apartments may feel counterintuitive. But in 2024, apartments added 6% to their share of all available listings—doubling their presence from the previous year. It's not a fad. It's a strategy.

As land becomes scarcer and more expensive, developers are turning to vertical builds and higher density to salvage margins. Apartments offer exactly that: more units per square metre, less sprawl, more yield. But here’s the kicker—this segment remains almost entirely off-plan. That means developers are betting big before anything’s built. And buyers? They're being sold renderings and rooftop dreams.

Still, the rise of apartments marks a turning point in Bali's evolution. This isn’t just about maximising profit; it’s also a sign of a maturing market. Apartments take longer to build, require more upfront capital, involve far more complexity, and often come bundled with amenities that go beyond the plunge pool and sunken lounge. It’s a different game. A developer can’t just carve out a corner of a rice field and drop in a few prefab villas. Delivering apartment stock at scale takes serious know-how—and serious money.

This is no longer the domain of weekend developers with a SketchUp subscription.. This is Bali entering the multi-storey chapter of its property playbook—and it’ll be fascinating to see who’s standing when the scaffolding comes down. 

Foreign Footprints in the Sand

Behind the curtain of this supply surge is a familiar figure: the foreign developer. With Indonesian nationals still largely limited in terms of large-scale investment reach, this wave of leasehold, off-plan, one-bedroom villas is a foreigner’s love letter to short-term ROI.

Leasehold properties up 6% from last year are the clearest signal of the foreign drive. Most Indonesian buyers prefer freehold. This boom isn’t domestic demand. It’s driven by international interest, off-plan flipping strategies, and the promise of Airbnb returns that may or may not survive regulatory scrutiny. With signs pointing to increased scrutiny on regulations, and competition increasing, the foreign wave of developers looking to turn a quick profit may fade into the sunset while the seasoned professionals building offerings that has kept Bali at the top of trip advisor continue along their steady journey.

Final Thought: The Mirage of Momentum

So, Let’s recap without the sugar high:

• Bali’s property market is up 45% on the surface—but strip out the off-plan fluff, and that figure lands closer to 25%.

• Leasehold dominates. Small units are the darlings of 2024. But don’t forget the families.

• South Badung is the growth engine, but it’s running on future promises, not current inventory.

• Traditional hubs like North Badung and Ubud are still growing, just without the hype.

• Emerging zones like Mengwi and Tabanan are shaping up as smart second-wave bets.

  Excitement doesn’t equal execution. Not every CGI makes it to reality.
  

This isn’t a peak. It’s not even a bubble (yet). But it is a shift - from substance to speculation, from families to freelancers, and from finished homes to floor plans. The fundamentals of Bali remain strong and the tourist economy has returned stronger than before, the desire and opportunity to build in Bali is strong, but the reality is tough—only 30% of properties are currently clearing, and with so many available, the gap between ambition and execution is clear to see.

Bali’s real estate market in 2024 is a mirror held up to investor psychology; excited, impatient, and maybe at times just a little delusional. The island isn’t running out of property. It’s running out of patience. Everyone wants in before the boom… without questioning whether the boom is already priced in. If you’re buying or building in Bali this year, do it with both eyes open. Know the difference between growth and hype. And remember: not every “booming” market is a good investment. Some are just loud. Understanding the growing Bali property market

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