Clearance rates. Not exactly the sexiest metric in real estate, but in Bali, they might be the most honest. While agents are still pushing brochures with infinity pools and ROI dreams, the clearance rate is quietly telling us the truth: what’s actually selling.

And here it is. The headline: Bali’s current clearance rate sits at 29%. Let that sink in.

Just under 3 out of every 10 listings result in a transaction. For a market that positioned itself as the "Dubai of Southeast Asia" not long ago, that number should be sobering. If Bali were a stock, you’d be checking if your stop-loss had triggered.

But let’s get nuanced. In global terms, a 29% clearance rate is soft. In developed cities like Sydney or London, anything below 50% suggests a buyers' market. Below 30%? That’s a sign of either overpricing, oversupply, or a serious mismatch between what’s being built and what’s being bought. In Bali's case, it might be all three.

And yet; Bali isn’t London. It’s not Sydney. It’s Bali. A volatile, post-pandemic hybrid of tourism, sea change cash-outs, and TikTok-fuelled FOMO. This is a market where the same person can build a villa, promote it as an investment, list it, delist it, and repackage it as a wellness retreat all in one quarter.

Clearance rates cut through that noise. But before we dive into the numbers, let’s consider what Bali actually is.

This isn’t a metro market like Singapore or Melbourne, where clearance rates above 60% are expected because people need to live close to jobs, schools, and transport nodes. Bali is different. It’s a hybrid market, part holiday home, part investment property, part lifestyle migration fantasy. It’s not somewhere people have to live; it’s somewhere they choose to buy. And that choice comes with more deliberation, a smaller buyer pool, and yes, lower clearance rates by default. So let’s see what the current rates are really telling us.

Geography Lesson: Where Are Sales Actually Happening?

Across Bali, most regions hover close to the 29% island wide average. But two regions clearly buck the trend:

• Gianyar (Ubud) is dragging behind with a clearance rate of just 20%. That’s the lowest on the island. All that green isn’t converting into gold.

• South Badung (Uluwatu, Bingin, Pecatu) leads the island at 36%. Bukit doesn’t just have the waves—it has the buyers.
  

The contrast is telling. Ubud, once the darling of artists and detoxers, appears to be losing steam as an investment destination. Perhaps it’s never been a growth market, but rather a mountain escape. Or maybe it’s just being outpaced by the south, where infrastructure and lifestyle branding have hit overdrive.

South Badung, by contrast, has clarity. It knows what it is—cliffside sunsets, surf chic, and fast-developing hospitality infrastructure. It’s delivering the kind of product buyers actually want right now: new, lean, and lifestyle-centric.

How Many Bedrooms Do You Want With That ROI?

In the clearance game, 1-bedrooms are punching well above their weight, clearing at 38%. Meanwhile, 2- and 3-bedrooms dominate in volume, racking up over 1,200 transactions combined, but with far more sluggish absorption.

It’s a shift. For years, the 3-bedroom villa was Bali’s benchmark. The classic build: pool, open-plan kitchen, a Bali rescue dog eating your coconut discards. But in 2024, the market is moving leaner.

1-bedrooms make sense. Lower entry point. Easier to rent. Easier to maintain. They match the lifestyle of the modern buyer: semi-nomadic, ROI-obsessed, and not interested in managing a three-bedroom portfolio while doing remote work from Berawa cafes.

They also fit the times. Rising costs, tighter lending, and a maturing buyer base have made big bets feel riskier. A smartly positioned 1-bedroom unit in a high-yield area? That feels manageable. That feels safe.

But What’s Really Moving? Spoiler: It’s Not the Resale Market

Let’s get more granular.

Apartments are clearing at 40%. That’s right—the humble apartment, often dismissed as un-Bali, is leading the charge. And it’s not hard to see why. With only 10% market share, apartments are still scarce. Combine that with rising land prices and a younger buyer base, and suddenly, apartments are sexy.

They offer convenience. They offer security. They offer something that doesn’t need a daily offering to the gods just to keep the pipes running.

Now for the real plot twist: Off-plan product is clearing at 42%. Resale? Barely scraping 25%. This isn’t just a stat—it’s a signal. Buyers want fresh. They want clean lines, modern amenities, and the idea (or illusion) of low maintenance. Off-plan gives them that, along with staged payment terms and a shiny brochure.

Resale, meanwhile, is showing its age. In a market obsessed with newness, the secondhand villa comes with baggage: legal quirks, renovation needs, dated design, and the ghost of Airbnb reviews past.

So What Does It All Mean?

It would be easy to summarise it like this: Buyers want new. Buyers want small. Buyers want affordable.

But maybe that’s too simple. Maybe buyers aren’t making these choices entirely on their own. Maybe this is just what’s being offered.

Remember our last post on the rise of the small Bukit asset? This could be less about demand and more about supply-side marketing. Developers are pushing 1-bedrooms and off-plan because they’re easier to sell, faster to build, and come with fewer questions.

An interesting outlier? The highest clearance rate of any category in any location was 4-bedrooms in Kerobokan, hitting a staggering 90%. Appetite for larger assets does exist—especially when the product is well-located, well-priced, and doesn’t come with 200 square metres of wasted lawn.

So yes, clearance rates show us what’s selling. But they also raise a bigger question: Is this what buyers want, or just what they’ve been trained to want?

The real estate market is never passive. It’s curated. Shaped. Framed. And right now, the frame is tight, glossy, and comes with a staged render. Clearance rates don’t lie. But they don’t tell the whole story either.

Final Thought: Read Between the Lines

The 2024 Bali market isn’t soft. It’s selective. Assets that are priced right, sized right, and staged right are moving. Everything else? Sitting. Sometimes for months. Sometimes forever. And in a world where everyone wants to be an investor, clearance rates are the harshest mirror. They reflect what’s real. And in 2024, reality is trending minimalist. Watch the numbers. Read the room. Then place your bets accordingly.